Executive Speechwriting: Corporate, Weddings, Retirement

Thursday, August 2, 2007

Hillary versus Rudy: Battle of the Complexes

The question came up, "If Hillary Clinton ran against Rudy Giuliani, who would win?"

No, this isn't celebrity boxing. Rudy's ex-wives could beat up Hillary. He has, what, three of them?

And this isn't battle of the sexes. Rudy's a man too.

John Kerry. Remember him? Not many do. He was the guy back in 2004 who ran against George W Bush. Bush was saluted with a record number of popular votes, trouncing the hapless Kerry. Some of those who voted for Kerry really were not Kerry supporters, but hated Bush with more passion than a KKK member. So, Kerry had his political butt handed to him on a platter.

Rudy Giuliani does not want to be John Kerry.

What? Rudy is a Republican. Kerry is a Democrat.

Right. Where they are similar is that Hillary Clinton's supporters are pro-Hillary. Rudy's will include a large batch of anti-Hillary supporters. Kerry's campaign was set on shifting sand, "Anyone but Bush." If Rudy rides the waves of "Anyone but Hillary," then he'll land on the sand just to be swept away.

Rudy's other problem is Barack Obama. As noted in an early post (Barack Obama is not a Pacifist (so what?)), Obama's not against military intervention against terrorism. One of Rudy's selling points, like the floundering John McCain's, is his commitment to putting down al Qaeda. Now, Obama's on cue, making sure his supporters know he's not exactly pro-war, but that he'll do what it takes. This will not steal away all of Rudy's supporters, but it will grab a few liberals that want an anti-terrorist candidate. Rudy isn't exactly a moral conservative, being called a champion of gay rights and supporter of abortion.

See: Political positions of Rudy Giuliani - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia).
Michael Long, chairman of the New York state Conservative Party of New York stated, "The gay marriage issue draws a line down the middle of the street, and Rudy Giuliani is something of a champion of gay rights."
Pro-Iraq, anti-abortion, anti-gay marriage conservatives might jump the morally ambiguous Republican Party and vote third party. I can see Ron Paul (see Ron Paul for President) landing as such a candidate. The third party candidate might pull a Ross Perot, stealing enough votes from the Republican presidential candidate to put Rudy under the Brooklyn Bridge.

If Hillary's snags Barack Obama as her running mate, and the race is against Rudy Giuliani (running mate unknown), at this moment (I have waffled immensely), it could be a landslide. Rudy does not have the moral differentiation, nor the completeness of difference regarding war, that he once appeared to have.

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